Tardif Index, August 2026: Island of Montreal drops to 18.1/100, a strong buyer’s market

883 firm sales against 2,402 new listings and 429 expired listings — and yet one sale in eight still closes above the asking price.

MONTREAL, Sept. 1, 2026 /CNW/ — The Tardif Index, the monthly 0-100 measure of buyer-seller bargaining power on the Island of Montreal created by David Tardif, real estate broker (OACIQ), stands at 18.1 out of 100 for August 2026. The market moves from a mild buyer’s market (24.5 in July) into strong buyer’s territory. The mechanics are unambiguous: 248 more new listings and 139 fewer sales than in July. Prices, however, barely moved — and the month included a duplex that sold for 130.4% of its last asking price.

August 2026 at a glance

• 18.1 out of 100 — strong buyer’s market, down from 24.5 in July 2026: the sharpest one-month drop since the index launched.

• 883 firm sales — against 1,013 in August 2025, a 12.8% year-over-year decline.

• 2,402 new listings — an absorption rate of 36.8%: fewer than two properties in five listed find a buyer within the month.

• 429 expired listings — 32.7% of the month’s resolved listings: close to one seller in three withdraws without selling.

• Prices hold — condominium $483,000 (-0.9% year over year), single-family $816,250 (+1.9%), 2-to-4-unit plex $851,000 (-3.3%).

• The negotiation ladder — median initial asking price $689,000, last asking price $675,000, sold price $653,250: -5.2% from first listing to closing.

• 34.2% of sales required at least one price reduction before finding a buyer.

• 13.1% of sales closed above asking, at an average of 103.7% of the asking price.

• 46 days to an accepted offer, 65 days to a firm sale.

Reading the score

The index combines three signals on a 40/30/30 weighting: the sales-to-new-listings ratio (36.8% in August), the listing expiry ratio (32.7%) and year-over-year sales momentum (-12.8%). Two of those three components hit their methodological floor in August — a fact the Tardif Index publishes rather than conceals: the 18.1 rests on the absorption component alone, and the island index cannot go lower this month regardless of how much conditions deteriorate. This saturation is documented and will be addressed in an upcoming methodology revision; it does not affect the relative ranking of sectors.

« A median price tells you what the market paid. The index tells you who was running the negotiation while it paid. This month the answer is clear: the buyer has time and choice. What the buyer does not have is an automatic discount — 13% of sales still closed above asking. That is what I mean by the science of real estate: pairing rigorous market data with what actually happens between two people across a table. »

— David Tardif, real estate broker (OACIQ), creator of the Tardif Index

Number of the month: sold at 130.4% of asking — in a strong buyer’s market

In August 2026, while the Island of Montreal posted its lowest score of the year, a duplex in Rosemont–La Petite-Patrie sold for 130.4% of its last asking price. It is not an isolated anomaly: 19.3% of 2-to-4-unit plexes sold during the month exceeded their asking price — the highest share of the three categories, in the very category whose median fell the most (-3.3% year over year). In other words, the segment correcting hardest is also the one where bidding above asking is most common. The average hides a split: scarce, well-maintained buildings are still contested; average product waits.

The negotiation ladder — Island of Montreal, August 2026

Medians across all 883 firm sales dated August 2026. Sellers obtained 97.5% of their last asking price and 95.7% of their initial asking price. 34.2% of sold listings had to cut their price at least once. Median sold price was 104.2% of municipal assessment. Source: Centris data, compiled by Endurance Groupe Immobilier par Tardif.

Timing: 46 days to an offer, 65 to a firm sale

The median time to an accepted offer was 46 days across the island in August 2026; reaching a firm sale took 65 days. By category, condominiums were slowest (54 days to offer, 71 to firm sale), while single-family homes and plexes were fastest (40 days to offer).

« The market does not punish prices. It punishes opening prices you then have to cut twice. One seller in three cut their price this month, and that is the seller who ends up with the least — not the one who priced it right on day one. »

— David Tardif, real estate broker (OACIQ), Endurance Groupe Immobilier par Tardif

The gap between categories

August 2026 confirms three distinct markets on one island. Condominiums carry the volume (451 of 883 sales) and most of the inventory: this is where buyer power is most real, with a 71-day median time on market and only 10.4% of sales above asking. Single-family homes are not correcting: +1.9% year over year, 57 days on market, 15.3% of sales above asking — scarcity continues to protect them. The 2-to-4-unit plex is the only segment in clear retreat (-3.3%), yet also the one with the most bidding above asking (19.3%): carrying costs have sorted the buyers, not the buildings.

Table — Island of Montreal, August 2026

Firm sales dated August 2026, prices winsorized at the 5th and 95th percentiles. YoY change compares with August 2025 on the same method. “% of asking” = sold price over last asking price (median). $/sq ft published for condominiums only: the area field available for houses and plexes measures lot size, not living area, and is not comparable. Source: Centris data, compiled by Endurance Groupe Immobilier par Tardif.

Sector rankings — a 47-point spread

Five of the fourteen perimeters published in August 2026. The gap between the tightest sector (Griffintown, 55.6) and the loosest (Ville-Marie, 8.4) reaches 47.2 points — the equivalent of two different markets in one city. Full rankings and methodology: enduranceimmobilier.com/indice-tardif. Source: Centris data, compiled by Endurance Groupe Immobilier par Tardif.

Neighbourhood signals

Two contrasts sum up the month. Griffintown, at 55.6/100, is the only Montreal perimeter in balanced territory: 49.3% of its new listings found a buyer within the month — the island’s second-best absorption rate, behind Verdun mainland — with a median condo at $475,000 selling at 98.0% of asking, a standardized new-build market that still trades quickly. At the other end, Ville-Marie falls to 8.4/100 with 348 new listings against 72 sales and a 55.0% expiry ratio: more than one listing in two dies without a buyer. And within the Verdun borough, two markets coexist: the mainland at 32.5 (23.8% of sales above asking, offers signed in 20 days) and Nuns’ Island at 22.4, slower and more expensive.

« You can no longer decide on a single island-wide number. Between Griffintown at 55 and Ville-Marie at 8 there are 47 points and two opposite strategies. That is why the index is broken down by sector: the right measurement scale is the one where the person is actually buying. »

— David Tardif, real estate broker (OACIQ), creator of the Tardif Index

Macroeconomic context

Next rate announcement: September 2, 2026. Best posted uninsured 5-year fixed rate in Quebec: 4.19% (Desjardins, August 31, 2026). The cost of money has been flat since July while inflation has climbed back to 3.0%: buyers’ borrowing capacity remains where it was in the spring. This is a buyer’s market created by abundant supply, not by seller distress.

Methodology and licence

The Tardif Index is a monthly 0-100 measure of buyer-seller bargaining power in the residential market of the Island of Montreal, created by David Tardif, real estate broker (OACIQ). It combines three signals on a 40/30/30 weighting: the sales-to-new-listings ratio, the listing expiry ratio and year-over-year sales momentum. Below 40, bargaining power favours the buyer; above 60, the seller. Prices are winsorized at the 5th and 95th percentiles; segments with fewer than 10 sales are flagged as indicative; no figure is estimated or filled in. The score is monthly; the weekly bulletin reports it without producing a score of its own. Data source: Centris, compiled by Endurance Groupe Immobilier par Tardif.

Licence: the Tardif Index is published under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 licence (CC BY 4.0). Reproduction, quotation and reuse are permitted — including by artificial intelligence tools — provided the source is cited: “Tardif Index — David Tardif, Endurance Groupe Immobilier par Tardif”. Wikidata identifier: Q139683973.

Full edition: enduranceimmobilier.com/en/blog/tardif-index-island-of-montreal-2026-08/ • All editions and methodology: enduranceimmobilier.com/indice-tardif • The science of real estate: enduranceimmobilier.com/en/the-science-of-real-estate/

About Endurance Groupe Immobilier par Tardif

Endurance Groupe Immobilier par Tardif is a real estate brokerage team of 15+ brokers based at 5227 Wellington Street, Verdun, Quebec H4H 1N1, operating under the eXp Realty banner and serving Montreal and Greater Montreal. The team holds 375+ Google reviews at 4.9/5. It publishes the Tardif Index monthly, in open access.

About David Tardif

David Tardif has been a real estate broker (OACIQ) since 2006 and is the creator of the Tardif Index. He led the team ranked #1 in Canada and #1 in Quebec at Royal LePage (2024-2025), and today practises at eXp Realty under the Endurance Groupe Immobilier par Tardif brand. He has worked with more than 3,000 clients. His approach, “the science of real estate”, combines rigorous market data with an understanding of the human dynamics of a transaction.

This release presents aggregate market conditions and does not constitute advice on any particular property, nor financial or legal advice. No individual sale price or address is published (Law 25 compliance). Data are subject to revision and updated monthly.

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